The fact that most Africans are under 35 is driving a shift in expectations of government. This was a central point made by two of Africa’s most respected former government leaders: former Tanzanian President, H.E. Jakaya Kikwete and former Prime Minister of Mozambique, the Rt. Hon. Luisa Diogo. Speaking during a Forum convened by the Harvard Kennedy Schools Institute of Politics together with Harvard’s Center for African Studies and the Harvard Ministerial Leadership Program, both speakers noted that, in addition to demographics, economic hardship and large-scale unemployment among young people have intensified demands for better performance by government leaders.
It was noted that during the early 1990’s development theorists speculated that democracy was inextricably linked to wealth and would not thrive in low-income societies. Yet, the speakers noted, democracy has over the past three decades become the predominant form of governance across Africa. This pattern has been shaken up by a recent spate of military coup d’état in West Africa leading many to speculate about the prospects for democracy in Africa.
Former President Kikwete noted that, on the other hand, over the past 18 months, there have been successful, largely free and fair elections in some of Africa’s major countries including Senegal, Nigeria, Liberia, and South Africa. About six more African countries will hold elections in the coming months.
Over the past decade, the former President has led many election monitoring delegations and noted that the sophistication of election organization continues to improve and singled out South Africa as a model election system.
Nonetheless, the speakers agreed African government leaders face elevated demands for accountability and delivery. Recent surveys show that the majority of Africans of all ages support democracy, but about half of those under 35 surveyed also said they are willing to tolerate a military government if that meant better service delivery, more responsive government, and an end to corruption. Such demands have been intensified by the effects of the post-COVID pandemic global economic crisis, high levels of inflation, and sluggish economic growth. Additionally, many African governments are heavily indebted. The International Monetary Fund estimates that about 20 African countries are technically bankrupt, and 30 countries spend more on servicing their international debt than health care.
Former Prime Minister Diogo said that with little room to maneuver, African leaders should be more attuned to the needs of their electorate. She noted that young people are alienated by leadership that is not representative of their aspirations. Surveys show that many young Africans see their political leaders as out of touch with regular citizens, and they no longer have loyalty to independence movements (particularly in southern Africa), many of which have been in government for decades, and reject authoritarian tendencies among some leaders.
The Forum concluded that the younger generation of Africans is better educated and more globally connected with bolder aspirations for Africa’s development than their older peers and change in the profile of African political leadership over the next decade is inevitable. The long-term policy implications are unclear, but evidence from countries like Senegal where 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye was recently elected President, suggests that a younger electorate may be drawn to a more leftists political agenda. Both speakers expressed optimism that countries that try the military alternative will find that to be a worse option and democracy will continue to flourish in Africa under a new generation.